11 Aug · 15:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1518
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Minda
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1498
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🌟Zochniak goes over total as underdog 62% (98)
Fair odds · Minda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H41-51
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.