11 Aug · 14:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1456
FormLWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sokolowski
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1452
FormLLLWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Baron
Fair odds · Sokolowski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.