11 Aug · 17:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1384
FormWLLLL
66%Win chancemodel fair 1.52Kaczynski
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1533
FormLWLLW
34%
66%
Fair odds · Kaczynski
Model 66% · 1.52vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~76 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
13%
3-2
12%
Elo Gap+149
H2H13-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+149)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-5)