11 Aug · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1282
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1303
FormWWLLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Piecowski🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~81 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.