11 Aug · 18:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1589
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Tkocz
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1538
FormWLWLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H13-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-8)