11 Aug · 19:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1365
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kowalczyk
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1331
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 35% · 2.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H9-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.