11 Aug · 21:30 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1406
FormLLLWL
69%Win chancemodel fair 1.45Kwiatkowski
KR
🇵🇱Kazimierz Rybak
ELO 1220
FormWLLLL
69%
31%
🌟Kwiatkowski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (17)
Fair odds · Kwiatkowski
Model 69% · 1.45vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 52%Total ~73 pts
3-1
27%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
12%
2-3
11%
Elo Gap+186
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+186)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)