11 Aug · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1308
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1335
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H66-54
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.