11 Aug · 21:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1676
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Tkaczyk
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1593
FormLLLWL
59%
41%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 69% (49)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~75 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+83
H2H47-39
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (47-39)