11 Aug · 22:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1409
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Brunner
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1403
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Brunner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.