11 Aug · 22:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1380
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kaczmarek
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1402
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 29% · 3.46· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H1-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.