11 Aug · 23:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1610
FormWWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Tkocz
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1559
FormWLWWW
56%
44%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H44-53
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)