11 Aug · 23:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
KR
🇵🇱Kazimierz Rybak
ELO 1230
FormLWLWL
83%Win chancemodel fair 1.20Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1588
FormLLLLW
17%
83%
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 83% · 1.20vsMarket 90% · 1.11· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 70%Total ~70 pts
0-3
41%
1-3
29%
2-3
13%
3-2
8%
3-1
6%
Elo Gap+358
H2H22-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+358)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-6)