12 Aug · 00:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1681
FormWWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Molenda
DM
🇵🇱Dariusz Molenda
ELO 1749
FormWWWLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Molenda
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H15-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-14)