12 Aug · 00:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1303
FormWWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lukaszewski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1299
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Piecowski🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H8-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.