12 Aug · 01:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1303
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1329
FormWLWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H17-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.