12 Aug · 02:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1399
FormWLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Wrzalik
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1332
FormLLLLL
57%
43%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Wrzalik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H8-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)