12 Aug · 02:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1324
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Golaszewski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1306
FormWLWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Piecowski🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~81 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.