12 Aug · 04:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1436
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krupa
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1399
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H0-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.