12 Aug · 03:35 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1332
FormLLLLL
73%Win chancemodel fair 1.37Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1558
FormWLWWL
27%
73%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 73% · 1.37vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 58%Total ~76 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
27%
2-3
15%
3-2
11%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+226
H2H45-32
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+226)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (45-32)