12 Aug · 04:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1508
FormWWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1558
FormWLWWL
45%
55%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H23-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-20)