12 Aug · 04:45 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1613
FormLWWLW
77%Win chancemodel fair 1.30Tkocz
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1336
FormLWLLL
77%
23%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 77% · 1.30vsMarket 81% · 1.24· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 61%Total ~75 pts
3-0
33%
3-1
28%
3-2
16%
2-3
9%
1-3
8%
Elo Gap+277
H2H43-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+277)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-9)