12 Aug · 06:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1657
FormLLWWL
74%Win chancemodel fair 1.35Tkaczyk
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1427
FormWWLLW
74%
26%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 69% (49)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 74% · 1.35vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 58%Total ~75 pts
3-0
32%
3-1
27%
3-2
15%
2-3
11%
1-3
10%
Elo Gap+230
H2H41-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+230)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (41-16)