12 Aug · 06:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1378
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kotyl
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1360
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Kotyl
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H12-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.