12 Aug · 06:40 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1393
FormWLWWL
72%Win chancemodel fair 1.39Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1601
FormWWLWW
28%
72%
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 72% · 1.39vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~72 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
11%
Elo Gap+208
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+208)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)