12 Aug · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1445
FormLLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1497
FormWLLLW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sokolowski🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H7-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-0)