12 Aug · 09:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1358
FormLWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Warpas
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1356
FormLLWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.