12 Aug · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1437
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Adamus
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1442
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sokolowski🌟Sokolowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (93)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.