12 Aug · 10:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1395
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Adamus
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1442
FormLLLWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kaczmarek🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 68% (56)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~81 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H35-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (35-27)