12 Aug · 09:35 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1327
FormWLLLL
76%Win chancemodel fair 1.32Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1584
FormWWWWW
24%
76%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 76% · 1.32vsMarket 72% · 1.40· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 60%Total ~76 pts
0-3
33%
1-3
27%
2-3
16%
3-2
10%
3-1
9%
Elo Gap+257
H2H46-32
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+257)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (46-32)