12 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1521
FormWWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Solilo
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1519
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Solilo
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.