12 Aug · 10:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1513
FormWWWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1584
FormWWWWW
42%
58%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H24-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-20)