12 Aug · 10:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1391
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vincenec
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1418
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
🌟Vincenec goes over total as favourite 69% (29)
Fair odds · Vincenec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H8-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.