12 Aug · 10:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1395
FormWWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sulkowski
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1350
FormLLWWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H7-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-5)