12 Aug · 12:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KW
🇵🇱Krzysztof Wloczko
ELO 1700
FormWLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Wloczko
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1643
FormLWLLW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Wloczko
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H45-33
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (45-33)