12 Aug · 12:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1604
FormLWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Adamus
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1548
FormLLWLL
56%
44%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H18-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-16)