12 Aug · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1527
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stapor
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1487
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 68% (34)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.