12 Aug · 13:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1636
FormLLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Poliniewicz
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1589
FormLLLLL
55%
45%
🌟Poliniewicz goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H83-48
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (83-48)