12 Aug · 14:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1639
FormLWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Daniel
AD
🇵🇱Artur Daniel
ELO 1700
FormLLLWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Daniel
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H32-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-9)