12 Aug · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1542
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Smolka
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1525
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 43% · 2.30· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.