12 Aug · 20:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1431
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Ruszkiewicz
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1429
FormLLLWL
50%
50%
🌟Idaczyk stays under total as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Ruszkiewicz
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H8-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.