12 Aug · 19:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1314
FormWLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1316
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Golaszewski🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H17-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.