12 Aug · 19:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1317
FormLWLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Trela
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1369
FormWWLWW
44%
56%
🌟Fabis covers set handicap as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H14-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)