12 Aug · 20:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Strus
ELO 1286
FormLLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1347
FormLWLLL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strus🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 47% · 2.11· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H39-33
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (39-33)