12 Aug · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1322
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fabis
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1311
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H35-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.