12 Aug · 22:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1303
FormLLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1352
FormLWWLW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H29-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-25)