12 Aug · 23:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇵🇱Janus Slawomir
ELO 1497
FormLWLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Slawomir
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1438
FormLLWWW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Machelski🌟Machelski covers set handicap as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Slawomir
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H4-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-0)