13 Aug · 00:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1359
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kowalczyk
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1313
FormLWWLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Golaszewski🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+46
H2H39-28
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (39-28)