12 Aug · 23:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1302
FormWLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Fabis
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1305
FormLLWLW
50%
50%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H32-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.