13 Aug · 02:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1465
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Baron
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1439
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sokolowski🌟Sokolowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (93)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 38% · 2.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.